Simulations: Transparency in planning. Analyze even more structured opportunities and risks.
With the help of simulations, the effects of different scenarios with many dependencies can be better analyzed. You can show decision makers a variety of opportunities and risks in a more structured way. The great added value of our simulations of value drivers lies in the combination of methodological know-how with our sector-specific database and many years of practical experience in analysis. For us, simulations are not primarily statistics. They are an instrument we use together with
you to analyze the financial effects of changes in individual value drivers on your planning.
Our process chain:
- Benchmarking as a necessary basis: The starting point for the simulations are our detailed and high-quality benchmarking figures
- Understanding the data is crucial: As a data basis for the simulation, we have a huge amount of comparative data to help us make assumptions for the distributions. In addition to the quantitative methods, the sector and company expertise of our analysts makes a substantial difference.
- Learning from crises: We look at a historically long time series while also considering crises such as the Lehman and Euro crisis. We have experience analysing such scenarios and are able to draw appropriate analogies.
- Relevance of the value drivers: We rank the value drivers on the basis of simulations.
- Probabilities of occurrence:For the relevant value drivers, we show you the probabilities of occurrence from our model. This can also be visualized in comparison to the benchmark and the competitors.
- Analysis of key figures from value-based management: We offer advanced simulations of aggregated parameters such as free cash flow, return on capital employed (ROCE) or default probabilities on the credit side.
The concrete benefit:
- We can show you the relevance of individual value drivers.
- The focus of the analyses on the relevant adjusting screws is of central importance for managers, supervisory boards, investors and consultants and ultimately almost all stakeholders.
- Well-founded benchmarking and simulation provide the answer to the central question: What is the probability that the expected cash flows will be generated?
- We deliver an integrated approach that brings together the necessary different perspectives.
More than just mathematics:
"The close interaction between fundamental and quant analysts makes all the difference when it comes to the customer benefit of simulations."
Süleyman Ertan, Managing Director, IVA ANALYTICS GmbH